The next 3 games will probably determine whether or not the Bills will host one or two playoff games in Orchard Park, starting with the New England Patriots on Thursday night’s Amazon Prime Game at Foxboro.

This is, obviously, the biggest game of the season for both the Bills and 6-5 Pats.

Although the Bills are 8-3 and a 5 point favorite, the Bills are also 0-2 in the AFC East going into this first of two meetings with Bill Belichick’s bunch.  The Patriots have all kinds of reasons to be motivated to the max for this one, starting with the 47-17 humiliation Josh Allen put on them in OP in last year’s AFC Wild Card game.

Lots of things are different now.

The Bills have had to deal with a ton of injuries they managed  to escape for the most part a year ago.  At the top of the list right now is Super Bowl Whisperer Von Miller, who’ll be out anywhere from a couple games to the rest of the season after they let his injured right knee calm down for a closer evaluation.

Allen is playing with a sore right elbow, and he’ll never admit just how sore it is, but we know he can still bring it.  The 36 yard lazer to Stefon Diggs to set up the game winning fg against the Lions was an ESPN highlight delight.

We know the Bills are still good if their key players are playing, and right now it looks like they’ll have edge rushers Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa out there along with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who in my mind is the Bills most unappreciated player.  The D is much better with him in there.

Almost lost in the shuffle is the return of  cornerback Dre White, who was none the worse for wear in his return from ACL surgery against the Lions.  He will probably see a lot more action this week.

The question mark for the offense is left tackle Dion Dawkins, who is bothered by an ankle.  This could be a problem as the Bills must contain Pats NFL sack leader Matthew Judon.  Center Mitch Morse is practicing fully.

Now, just how good are the Patriots?  They’ve beaten the Jets twice, but their most impressive win by far was a 29-0 shutout of the Lions in Foxboro in early October. Their most perplexing loss was at home to the Bears 38-15 just one week later.

Quarterback Mac Jones has been both good and terrible. If the Pats can get their run game going against the Bills, he’ll be a factor.

In my mind it’s all about Allen, once again.  He’s at his best on the big stage, like this one, but he’s also fighting some poor decisions inside the red zone, and turning it over against the Patriots will be fatal.  Can’t happen.

We wonder if John Smoke Brown will be in the lineup?  If he can still play with speed, he’ll help Allen probably more than even somebody like Odell Beckham Jr would, coming off ACL surgery 8 weeks ago.  I don’t think the Bills were ever serious about signing him anyway.

Happy 29^th birthday to Stefon Diggs, who’ll be the Pats #1 concern defensively, but Allen and Diggs are used to that. Both Gabe Davis and tight end Dawson Knox must make plays, and hopefully Isaiah McKenzie can rekindle the magic he had in his last game at Foxboro.

It’s been a strange season for the Bills, who were clear cut Super Bowl favorites starting the season.  Now, because of several factors, including Allen’s uncharacteristic turnovers, the Bills are  behind the KC Chiefs as favorites to win it all.

Allen will have to be really, really good, but that’s why he gets the big bucks.

Bills beat the Pats 31-24.

EdK

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Take a peek at Facebook or Twitter and it won’t take long for you to think the Bills must have LOST their Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit.  A quick reminder here that road wins in the NFL are tough to come by.  The margin doesn’t matter, but the W or L does.

The Bills did survive another somewhat shaky start in Detroit just 5 days after downing the Browns at Ford Field in the Snowbowl game, winning it 28-25 on Tyler Bass’s 45 yard field goal as time expired.  The vastly improved Lions were 9 point underdogs and played tenaciously in front of the big crowd.

Whew.

The Bills are now 8-3 despite another perplexing red zone interception from Josh Allen, his 6^th red zone turnover this season, which is more than he had the previous 3 seasons combined.  A huge win though, because it puts the Bills at least temporarily back atop the AFC East, with 3 straight division games ahead.

Although Allen’s final stats look pretty good with 24-42 for 253 yards and 2 TD’s, plus another 78 yards rushing and a TD on 10 carries, there were issues.

The INT at the Lion’s 10 yard line early in the 3^rd quarter was an “oh no, here we go again?” moment. You have to wonder if Allen’s right elbow is even close to 100%, and also is he missing OC Brian Daboll?  Allen has a strong relationship with OC Ken Dorsey, but the question has to be asked.

Is Stefon Diggs not getting open like he has been?  Are teams getting better at disguising what they’re doing to confuse Allen?  The two got off to rocky starts in both opening halves of the two games in Detroit, but put it behind them later. Luckily Isaiah McKenzie showed up big against the Lions with 6 catches for 96 yards and a TD.  Diggs wound up with 7 for 77 and a score, but it was Diggs and Allen who provided the biggest play of the game.

The Lions kicked a tying field goal to make it 25-25 with :23 left in regulation.  You left :23 seconds for Josh Allen?  Here’s why even the naysayers have to be careful to count Allen out. On the first play after the kickoff, Allen fired a bullet downfield that Diggs caught between two defenders for a 36 yard gain. Allen’s couple runs got Tyler Bass closer, and Bass ended it.

Great players aren’t perfect, but they often make great plays with the game on the line.  Allen came through.

Give the D credit here, even though they were missing some starters and Von Miller left early with a right knee injury.  NT Ed Oliver turned the Lions’ bad field position into a safety of qb Jared Goff.  Oliver also forced and recovered a fumble, making the two biggest defensive plays of the game. As for Miller, it looks like a sprain, but even that could sideline him 4-6 weeks.

With a game at New England next Thursday, if Greg Rousseau and Tremaine Edmunds aren’t back, the Bills D is really shorthanded.

Your eyes weren’t deceiving you if you spotted #27 out there for a few plays early. Cornerback Tre White made his return from ACL surgery almost a year to the day and played a limited amount of snaps, but he should see more action in a week.

Making things interesting as we head down the stretch, the Bills have reportedly (CBS Sports) set up a meeting with Odell Beckham Jr. in December.  Don’t get too excited, with Dallas and KC also in pursuit of the talented wide receiver who is also coming off ACL knee surgery, but it is interesting.  I’m no longer in the no crowd.

It’s gonna be a busy short week in the Bills training room with all the defensive injuries, but LT Dion Dawkins also left the Lions game with a knee injury.  He’s the most important O-lineman to protect Allen, but we don’t know yet whether he’ll be back for the Patriots.

This puts even more on Allen, but don’t bet against him.

EdK

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The way many fans and national media  are reacting to the Bills mini-slump, and the 31-23 win at Ford Field in Detroit over the Cleveland Browns, you’d think everything is falling apart heading into the Thanksgiving Day meeting with the Lions back in Detroit.

The 7-3 Bills are 8 ½ point favorites over the 4-6 Lions, who are coming off an impressive 31-18 win at the NY Giants.

But the Bills still have by far the biggest scoring differential in the NFL, and are 7-3 after a very tough opening 10 games. Their losses were close ones to winning teams, and they’ve beaten three AFC division leaders, including the Chiefs in KC.

The offense, even with Josh Allen’s uncharacteristic turnover binge, is still one of the NFL’s best.  It’s the injury-riddled D that has fallen off after a strong start, but there’s no reason to think some players like Greg Rousseau and Tremaine Edmunds, and yes, even Tre White, will return sooner than later.

Bills HC Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane are detail freaks, and one reason they decided to return to Buffalo after the Browns win when they could have just stayed in Detroit and avoid the hassle.

But they felt it was more important to get the players home to get resettled with their families dealing with the big blizzard, before returning to Ford Field.  The Bills went so far as to request the visitor’s lockerrooms and sidelines despite being the home team against the Browns, in order for there to be a more familiar feeling.

Although Jared Goff and the Lions are among NFL leaders offensively, 7^th overall and 8^th in ppg at 25.0, they’re also dead last on defense.

So feel free to turn Josh loose and rack up some points, right?

Not at all.  The blueprint used to whip the Browns won’t change.  The Bills will use plenty of Devin Singletary and more James Cook, and Allen will hopefully not be forced to run it more himself, while also focusing on being careful in the red zone.  Yes, this may mean more field goals, but Tyler Bass is money, especially in domes.  He was 6-6 against the Browns, a direct result of not forcing anything in the red zone, and it may happen again.  Wonder what Bass thinks about domes?

In some respects, the Bills shorthanded D did a remarkable job against the Browns, as they held Nick Chubb to a personal worst 19 yards on 14 carries, or 1.4 yards per attempt.

The 300 plus yards from Jacoby Brissett is a concern. Focused on Chubb, the Bills man coverage gave up some big plays in the air, but they also stuffed a couple goal line qb sneaks and another 4^th down play.  Goff and the Lions will certainly try to exploit the Bills secondary.

The Bills have everything they want just ahead in this next 7 game stretch.  They must take care of business against the Lions, and then, they play at New England a week from Thursday, and then host the Jets and Dolphins.

The sky isn’t falling.  Allen is fine.  The D will hopefully have Rousseau, Edmunds, Epenesa and even White back soon.

Allen likes playing on Thanksgiving, and he’ll like this one too.

Bills win 33-17.

EdK

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What a week this was!

The Bills are reeling from two straight losses and turnovers and blown leads, and they catch a break with the 3-6 Cleveland Browns coming to raucous Highmark Stadium.

But this is western New York, and we all know anything can happen once we get into November.  And happen it did, with 77” or more snow dumping it’s Lake Effect on Orchard Park,  and by Friday the game was shifted to Detroit.

A quick aside to those of you who now say “See, if we had a dome we’d have played here”.  Not true.  It was FAR too dangerous to even try to get to the stadium. We move on.

Almost lost in the world wide coverage of Buffalo’s latest snow storm, is the fact the Bills came into this game reeling from two straight losses, with both directly attributable to Josh Allen interceptions or an end zone fumble.  Allen wasn’t solely responsible of course, as he was getting little run support and felt like he had to do it all.

In the Bills 31-23 win over the Browns in Ford Field, Allen showed a lot of doubters that he is still a winner who can adapt when it matters.  This wasn’t a big game for Allen statistically, as he hit 18-27 for 197 yards and a touchdown, adding only 7 yards rushing on 3 carries. But it worked, because Allen didn’t try to do it all himself, and had NO turnovers.  He was careful, but still made some Allen-like throws downfield on target, with Gabe Davis and tight end Dawson Knox contributing key catches. Stefon Diggs didn’t get a look until the 2qtr, but bounced back after a hug and quiet pep talk from Coach Sean McDermott.

Allen also received the best run support he’s had all season, as both Devin Singletary and rookie James Cook rushed for 86 yards apiece. Singletary scored a TD and Cook averaged 7.8 yards per carry.

Did the snow storm and change of plans have an effect on the Bills?  No question.

They kicked off and watched backup qb Jacoby Brissett drive the Browns on a 6 minute drive resulting in a TD.  Brissett passed for over 300 yards with 3 TD’s, and he was sharp early. 

This was bad.

At one point in the 2qtr, the Browns led 10-3 and had the ball at midfield.  At the moment they were outgaining the Bills 180-12 in yardage.  The Bills could do better than that in six feet of snow.

But praise Bills Mafia.   Brissett fumbled a center exchange and Matt Milano, who else, recovered.  The game changed dramatically after that.  Even with  the absence of some Bills defenders like Greg Rousseau and Tremaine Edmunds, the Bills D was stout when it mattered.  Amazingly, predictions the Bills would have trouble stopping freight train Nick Chubb didn’t happen.  Chubb finished with 19 yards on 14 carries, a 1.4 yard average.

Back to the drive.

Allen led the Bills to one of six field goals from Tyler Bass, and then directed a beautiful end of the half drive some 78 yards on 11 plays, capped by a 5 yard bullet to Diggs for the TD.  The Bills led 13-10 at the half, but unlike the last two games, they increased the lead in the second half. 

One worrisome aspect of Allen’s much publicized elbow injury, is that everybody knows it.  In the 2^nd qtr, Browns LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah clearly, on a replay, whacked Allen’s right elbow as both were going out of bounds on an Allen scramble.   Not only was there no flag, but even the announcers, including former Bills Hall of Fame James Lofton, didn’t mention it.

The Bills don’t have long to enjoy this one, as they flew right back to Buffalo for a couple days before turning right around to fly back to Detroit to face the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Right now next week looks like sunny and in the 40’s, so flying to Detroit shouldn’t be a biggie, especially since we already know the forecast for Ford Field.

EdK

ekilgore120@gmail.com

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No game in OP on Sunday, it’s been moved to Ford Field in Detroit given the forecasted snow. This is the first time since 2014 that a game has been moved due to a weather storm in Buffalo. Now, the Bills will play two games at Ford Field in a five day span with the Bills/Lions game on Thanksgiving Day at 12:30pm.

But first, the Browns…

For Josh Allen, it’s the sudden rash of throws to the wrong team near the end zone at the worst possible times.  The heartbreaking 33-30 OT loss to the Vikings left the Bills at 6-3 and behind both the Dolphins, idle this week, and the Jets, who are at New England.

The Browns are a running team, and they have the Oline to do it, with Nick Chubb leading the way.  The former Georgia star averages 5.6 per carry and needs under 100 Sunday to go over 1,000 yards.  He also has 11 TD’s. Jacoby Brissett is the qb placeholder Deshaun Watson, still under suspension, and he’s a journeyman at best.

With Allen’s recent slump and coming off an elbow injury to defy the experts by playing last week, will OC Ken Dorsey dial it back a bit?

Zero chance of that.  Allen is gonna do what he’s gonna do. He went through a light workout Wednesday and is expected to be full go against the Browns. A couple players, including LB Matt Milano, missed practice with non-Covid illness but should play. 

Allen is obviously the key to the Bills aspirations, which remain high despite this rough stretch, which they also went through a year ago.  Allen’s size and mobility will be a definite factor in this game, as much as we all cringe to see #17 flying down the field always moments away from a crushing hit of some kind.

The Bills are 8 point favorites over the Browns, and no matter what the weather, I think the Bills will be the hungrier team.

Allen is taking a lot of national and local hits for his turnover fest of the past 3 weeks, and the criticism if fair for the most part.  The Bills are paying him to be better, and he will be no matter what the weather this Sunday.

Bills win 23-13.

EdK

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All NFL fans think their teams have suffered crushing defeats that tend to overshadow big victories, but Bills fans can tell you the Bills 33-30 overtime loss to the streaking Minnesota Vikings in Highmark Stadium was the most crushing loss in memory.

Oh I know, Wide Right, the Music City Miracle, and :13 seconds still hurt and were more important, but this one was excruciating.

Blowing another two TD halftime lead was tough, but seriously?

The 8-1 Vikings have been doing this all year, but it looked like the Bills finally had their number after an incredible goal line stand late in the 4^th quarter let the Bills hold a 27-23 lead with :49 seconds  left.  The Bills chose not to take a safety from their own one because the Vikings would have too much time left. But who could have predicted Josh Allen would mishandle the center snap and somehow, incredibly, a Vikings player recovered the ball for a TD and 30-27 lead?  I’ve never seen that happen.  Not once.

It was that kind of day for Allen, who didn’t practice at all until Friday, and defied all the experts by playing despite an injured elbow UCL injury a week ago against the Jets.  Ahem, somebody said all last week Allen would play, and they laughed.  Hint.  It was in this space if you want to check back.

What we hoped was an anomaly is now becoming worrisome, with Allen throwing two red zone interceptions in the 4^th quarter and overtime that essentially cost the Bills the game. Allen now has thrown 4 red zone int’s in the past two weeks.

His courage and heart are inarguable. He’s a lion. In this game Allen threw for 330 yards and a touchdown, and ran for another 84 on six carries, but the int’s were stunningly poor decisions. Nobody feels worse about it than Allen.

So now 6-3, the Bills are in third place in the AFC East behind the Dolphins at 7-3  and idle 6-3  Jets, and with 8 games left, there’s work to do.

Before we tear apart the Bills, again missing some key players on defense, like Greg Rousseau, Jordan Poyer and Kaiir Elam, let’s talk about the Minnesota Vikings.  They’re resilient and good in all 3 phases.  Kirk Cousins did throw a couple picks, but he kept the chains moving with 357 yards and a TD, and wide receiver Justin Jefferson was simply unstoppable.  Jefferson is the guy the Vikings drafted with the first round pick the Bills gave them for Stefon Diggs, and both teams benefitted. Diggs had another great game with  12 catches for 128 yards, but that paled to Jefferson’s output.  With several of his 10 catches keeping drives alive on 3^rd and 4^th down, the speedster from LSU racked up 193 yards despite being tightly covered on several of the grabs. What a player!

Josh Allen is a generational talent. An incredible competitor who is sometimes the victim of his own desire to win, and it now seems obvious he’s pressing, which leads to poor decisions. Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox did step up in this one, but running back Devin Singletary averaged only 3.6 yards on 13 carries and lost a fumble.  He did score his first 2 TD’s of the season on short runs, but Allen continues to be the Bills leading rusher.  My hope is that Bills fans will understand that Allen is human, and playing aggressively sometimes leads to mistakes.  He’s been the vocal team leader along with others like Diggs and Von Miller, but now the team needs to rally around him and have his back.

Everything the Bills want is still ahead of them with 8 games left, they’re 0-2 in the AFC East, true, but they still play Miami, the Jets and Patriots at home, in what has become the NFL’s toughest division.

With any luck, the Bills just might see these Vikings again.

EdK

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Lots of excellent story lines with the 7-1 Minnesota Vikings coming to Buffalo Sunday.  Stefon Diggs facing his former team for the first time since the trade over two years ago.  Brothers James Cook and the Vikings Delvin Cook facing each other.  The possibility of Bills backup qb Case Keenum going up against his former team, or one of several former teams actually.

All this pales with the Josh Allen story, which now has about 100 different versions on whether or not he’ll play Sunday. He tore his UCL. He sprained his UCL. It’s a partial tear.  No way he should play and risk making the injury worse with 9 games to go in the regular season.  Who’s right?

Vegas oddsmakers, who always seem to have inside sources, don’t think Allen will play.  Before Allen’s injury last Sunday against the Jets,

Vegas loved the Bills by 8 over the Vikings.  Now?  The line is only 3 ½, which assumes Keenum is in there.

Bills coach Josh McDermott is being coy, as he usually is with injuries and speculation about same.  Although Allen didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday and wore a protective sleeve on his right arm, McDermott says he’s day to day.  For McDermott, that’s saying a lot.

Allen’s body language, according to his teammates, is that he’s playing.

I think he is too.

For one thing, this is not the same elbow injury Allen suffered in 2018 at Houston, when he screamed in pain, left immediately for the locker room and missed a month.

This time, after getting his throwing arm caught awkwardly in the final seconds at the Jets, Allen grimaced a couple times but stayed in there, and a couple plays after the grabbed the elbow, he fired a 70 yard bomb downfield that Gabe Davis later admitted he should have caught.

We know Allen is as tough as they come.  He had to be physically restrained in the Bills training room when it was suspected he suffered a concussion against the Patriots a couple years ago just before the half.  Allen played the next week after going through the protocol. 

However, will the Bills want to risk aggravating the injury with 9 games left in the regular season even though Allen says he’s “fine”?

Easy answer.  Of course not.

If he’s cleared medically, and it’s an issue of pain management, Allen will play.  Will that mean OC Ken Dorsey will have to change the game plan? Fewer passes?  Shorter passes? No running?

East answer part 2.  Allen will be Allen if he plays.  He’ll run if forced to or if he sees an opening, and he’ll throw it deep if the matchup he likes is there.  He knows one speed and that’s full.

To say this is a huge game not even halfway through the season is not an overstatement.  The Fins and Jets are 6-3, just a half game behind the Bills 6-2, and the Patriots are a game behind them.  Plus, the Bills are 0-2 in the AFC East, which doesn’t affect this game directly.

The way I see it is that Allen plays and the Bills win it 31-24.  If he doesn’t play or gets reinjured?

Have to stick with my story.  He’s playing.

EdK

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Wow.  Who saw this one coming?  How about nobody, including the Jets media and fans.  Certainly not the national media, although several observed the Bills 10 ½ point spread as a road favorite was on the generous side.

Ya think?

Jets 20, Bills 17 final from MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, and now the AFC East race is the best dogfight in the NFL.  The Bills are 6-2, not bad considering that includes wins over AFC Divisional leaders Tennessee, Kansas City and Baltimore, but the Bills are also 0-2 in the AFC East.  The Jets and Dolphins are just a half game back at 6-3 and both have wins over the Bills.  The Pats are right in there at 5-4.

How did this happen?  Many reasons, beginning with the fact the Jets are pretty good and definitely underrated.  Coach Robert Saleh has them believing in themselves, and they bounced back from a disappointing home loss to the Patriots with a relentless physical assault on the Bills and QB Josh Allen. Allen may have unwittingly helped young qb Zach Wilson, by telling him during the week he shouldn’t be discouraged about a 3 interception game against the Pats.  Maybe next week Wilson should text Allen to shake it off.  Wilson played within himself and is far from awful, as many fans and media labeled him after last week.

But Wilson also benefitted from a Jets running game that simply ran over the Bills. Yes, the Bills missed linebacker Matt Milano and safety Jordan Poyer, and Greg Rousseau and cornerback Kaiir Elam during the game, but the Bills sudden inability to stop the run popped up in last week’s 27-17 win over the Packers. The Bills were in great shape tied 17-17 with the Jets at their own 4 with just under 8 minutes to play.  Get a stop and march down and grab the W.  But the Jets pounded the ball, including 8 straight runs at one point, and eventually kicked the game winning field goal.  This has to be fixed, and soon.

We didn’t think a lot about it when Allen threw a couple 4^th qtr  int’s in the  win over the Packers, including one in the Red Zone.  He led the Bills to 24 first half points so no biggie.

But throwing two more picks  at the Jets, including on the opening drive in the Red Zone, is alarming.  Clearly Allen was pressured more than any other game so far this season, and it’s part of the reason he did run for 86 yards and 2 TD’s, including a 36 yard beauty in the 2^nd qtr to give the Bills a 14-3 lead. But the Jets have a strong front 7, and their pressure helped keep Allen to just over 200 yards in the air with no TD’s and just over 50%.

This is certainly on Allen, and this will quiet a lot of the MVP and Super Bowl hype for a while as everybody overreacts as they usually do. But Bills critics who claim the Bills rely far too much on their QB have a point.  His Oline wasn’t able to give him his usual time, and other than Allen, Devin Singletary and James Cook combined for 39 yards on 12 carries, or just over 3 yards per attempt.

But there’s more.  We all know about the Allen-Stefon Diggs connection and chemistry, and Diggs continued his incredible production with 5 catches for 93 yards.  But he didn’t have any in the end zone, nor did Gabe Davis or tight end Dawson Knox.  They combined for 58 yards on 5 catches and seemed invisible throughout the game.  Isaiah McKenzie has also become an afterthought with 2 catches for 12 yards.  With Allen and Diggs now providing 90% of the offense, there’s a problem and the Bills know it.  I’ve been against the Odell Beckham Jr. speculation for the past few weeks, but now once he’s healthy it might not seem so far-fetched.

Another thought.  Why not target rookie wide receiver Khalil Shakir a bit more? He was totally ignored in the Jets game, and he’s been nothing but productive so far.  James Cook?  He’s a bigger and faster Singletary, and much more explosive as a receiver.  Newly acquired Nyheim Hines did make his Bills debut with an 18 yard punt return, and I’d be surprised if we don’t see more of him next week when the Bills host the 7-1 Minnesota Vikings.

It’s a long season, and Head Coach Sean McDermott has often mentioned how his team needs to keep an even keel, and not get too high or too low. Getting healthier on defense would help of course, but moving forward, Allen must get more help.  Is he pressing now?  How could he not be?

We know this.  One player the Bills won’t have to fire up for next Sunday’s game against the Vikings at Highmark Stadium, is Stefon Diggs.  I’m not a fantasy player, but if I were, I’d have Diggs in my lineup for sure.

EdK

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The fun times continue for Bills fans, as their beloved Bills go into Sunday’s game against the NY Jets at Met Life Stadium (in New Jersey!) as 11 ½ point favorites.  This is despite the fact the vastly improved Jets are 5-3 under 2^nd year coach Robert Saleh. Although 6-1, this is a division game for the Bills, and that alone makes it big knowing the Jets could suddenly move within a half game of the Bills.

These aren’t the same old Jets under Saleh.  The former 49ers Defensive Coordinator, somewhat like Bills coach Sean McDermott, is all about changing the culture in the organization, and his plan is working under the direction of GM Joe Douglas.  They’ve purged some bad attitudes and drafted well, but the obvious problem they have, is that they don’t have Josh Allen. Second year qb Zach Wilson is an enigma inside a conundrum. Strong arm and some mobility, and accurate when not under pressure.

And there’s the rub.  Unlike Allen, Mahomes and a few others who are actually BETTER under pressure, Wilson has happy feet and too often bails out before he really has to.  This was especially apparent in last week’s 22-17 home loss to the Patriots.  Wilson threw for just over 350 yards (yay!) but also was under 50% (20/41) with THREE (boo!) interceptions.

Offensively the Bills are close to full strength, plus they’ve added some speed and depth by acquiring running back/kick returner Nyheim Hines, who just started practicing and probably won’t play much if any.

Allen will enter this game with a chip on his shoulder, which is probably a good thing if he doesn’t try to run over everybody. The Bills and Allen clearly lost some focus in last week’s 27-17 win over the Packers after jumping out to a 24-7 halftime lead.  The Bills didn’t score a touchdown and Allen threw two interceptions in the 4^th quarter, after not throwing ANY in 6 games prior to this one.  It’s hard to say, but Allen might have become impatient watching the Packers settle for running the ball and chewing clock, and forced a couple throws he normally wouldn’t make.  We do know it was obvious Allen did his best to put up a positive front after the W, but he clearly wasn’t happy with his performance.

So with the Packers rushing for over 200 yards against the Bills, the logical assumption would be this is a weakness the Jets might exploit.  Run the ball, use the clock and keep Allen on the bench.

That’s not gonna happen though.  The Bills purposely stayed in their nickel defense against the Packers even though they were getting gouged on the ground, because with a 3 possession lead, they knew the Packers had no chance to win without Aaron Rodgers making some chunk plays with his arm.  My gut tells me the Packers knew the game was all but over at the half, and Rodgers would be a sitting duck if they tried to come from behind with a passing attack.  Live to fight another day, in other words.  They didn’t get blown out and played a respectable game, but they never really threatened after the first quarter.

Defensively the Bills won’t have safety Jordan Poyer after he injured his elbow in the Packers game, and linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds are questionable. Cornerback Tre White looks fully healthy in practice, but I’m guessing they’ll wait another week before putting him back on the field after one full year recovering from a torn ACL. 

Against the Jets, the running lanes open to the Packers won’t be there most likely. The Bills think their 4-man front can pressure Wilson enough to drop 7 yet still control the running game enough to put Wilson in some third and long situations.

This will be a tough, physical game and the Jets crowd will be a factor until the Bills do something to quiet them a bit.

I don’t see a high scoring game, but I do see a Bills win…..24-10.

EdK

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